Three decisions get made before any equipment is ordered, and the order matters. First, what type of system the house should have. Second, how big it needs to be. Third, whether the ducts and the venting can carry what you are buying.
Type comes first because Phoenix has a genuine choice here that colder markets do not. A heat pump covers heating and cooling on one machine and suits a mild heating load well. A gas furnace paired with an air conditioner separates the two jobs and is often the answer where gas service is already in place and the ductwork is built around it. Neither is automatically right, and anyone who tells you otherwise before seeing the house is selling rather than sizing.
Size comes from a load calculation. Heating loads in Phoenix are small compared with most of the country, and the common mistake is carrying over whatever tonnage or BTU rating was there before. An oversized heater short cycles, heats unevenly, and wears out its ignition components early, the same way an oversized air conditioner does in July.
Then the practical constraints. A condensing furnace produces liquid condensate and cooler exhaust, so it needs drainage and a venting arrangement that an older atmospheric chimney will not provide. On a rooftop package unit that is a real piece of work, not a footnote. We look at all of it before quoting, and we tell you what the ducts need rather than discovering it on install day.